Crypto isn’t ‘Highlander’, there will be many, then there will be more as time passes. We see more and more projects, each getting their slice as we go from thousands to hundreds of thousands of cryptos, the top ones will grow vs USD, but shrink as percentage of overall crypto. Of course some will keep rising, even relative to overall crypto marketcap but not many will do that. As BTC legacy goes from 50% to 25%, the question is if any other would be able to even hold onto 10% ?
Maybe I’m still conditioned from earlier Bitcoin years, but I really would like for a single main unit of account. A sort of general accepted measuring stick. But I’ve realized that you would need the right instrument to achieve it, and open source software isn’t one. Hard to expect a single uber winner.
In the past there was a lot of friction moving between gold, silver, bronze, copper, salt, pepper, etc… and yet they were used.
Much less friction moving between cryptocurrencies. I think at large scale the market will correct itself to something sane, it’s still too early to tell.
The reality is that a lot of tech companies will be releasing their crypto projects, Telegram, Facebook, Apple, etc… we can’t expect these to be small caps, which means they will be in the billions marketcap. With the number of tech companies that could support >billion marketcap, it can’t help but lower the percentage of overall marketcap that BTC has.
The main problem I see with many many coins is price volatility: hard to use something as real world money with extreme purchase power fluctuations. Only at very large scale this will somewhat fix itself, or by using them as collateral for a DAI-like thing (but the latter has its own risks)
It seems the stablecoins will be the gateway to the real crypto. With the economics of stablecoins, it seems there will be a lot of issuers of them as they get what is essentially an interest-free loan, which they can collect interests on. Who wouldn’t like that?
Maybe crypto gets to 1 trillion marketcap with stablecoins being the majority of the value. What if some big bank issues 100 billion of a stablecoin, does that make it the #1 marketcap crypto? Using current methods CMC uses, it would.
So this is why I predict BTC share of crypto marketcap will go from 50% down to 25% and we won’t ever see any dominant crypto at >80% ever again.
What if we end up with 10 such stablecoins and BTC ends up at #7?
The irony of this is that early cypherpunk visions for e-money was more similar to a stablecoin than the floating-exchange rate of BTC